Gary Ling, Digital Producer, Data Monetiser, Political Savant, Information Economist, Solution Seller, Business Strategist.
"Life, is a Virtual State of Mind" - Gary Ling
  • Garys Balls
    • Ballsy Start
    • Marketing
    • Economics
    • Project Management
    • Business Strategy
    • eCommerce
    • Business Intelligence
  • Theory of Balls
    • Ling's Theory of Balls Rule 1: "Play Ball"
    • Rule 2: "Have Balls"
    • Rule 3: "Crystal Ball"
    • Rule 4: "Play The Ball"
    • Rule 5: "Talk Balls"
    • Rule 6: "Listen For Balls"
    • Rule 7: "Juggle Balls"
    • Rule 8: "Eye On The Ball"
    • Rule 9: "Score With The Ball"
    • Rule 10: "Have A Ball!"
  • Digital Thinking
    • ...Hi-Tech Cities
    • ...eCommerce
    • ...Bloomberg Reuters
    • ...User Behaviour
    • ...LoveIn My Blacky
    • ...GDS Digital By Default
    • ...InfoWorker BullsEye
    • ...The Cloud
  • DigiShorts
  • Ballsy Thinking
    • ...WikiLeaks
    • ...Stop Iranian Nukes
    • ... on UK Economy
    • ...on the EuroZone
    • ....on Terrorism
    • ...UK Independence Party
    • ...on Crime
    • ...on Social issues
    • ...on China
    • ... on Soviet Union
    • ... on Companies House
    • ... on Drones
  • Ballsy Shorts
  • Chicken Balls
  • Pit Balls
  • Maggie Balls
  • Military Balls
    • British Balls
  • Greenwich Balls
  • China Balls
  • Soviet Balls
  • Scotland Balls
  • Watford Balls
  • Adult Balls
  • Twitter Balls
  • Marketing
  • HOME Tiled

If Watford #Brexits, Britain Exits

22/6/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
As the United Kingdom’s EU Referendum campaign comes to a close, here are 8 key takeaways from my 10 week part-time participation for the Leave side in the Hertfordshire town of Watford, one of 201 non-Metropolitan Districts in England that will declare a result 0330-0400hrs Friday morning.

Key 1. Even taking into account that the Remain side had the huge advantage of the government’s communications machine going for them, the national Leave campaign got off to a poor start back in mid-April when the @Vote_Leave organisation was officially designated. Crucially however, one thing that really struck home with the Watford public was the #ProjectFear story line. From my first weekend on the Leave stall in the Town Centre, ‘Government’s #Scaremongering’ was something that people mentioned to me right off the bat. Of course, this will only prove to have been amazingly effective if the District scores for Brexit. The Remainians have been trying to turn the tide on the effectiveness of the views of so-called ‘Experts’ ever since. The extent to which they are successful in this as the campaign ends will determine the outcome.
Key 2. Ten weeks of street stall conversations with random shoppers around the District does not a proper market research project make. Yet, my assumptions of the effects of ‘significant events’ amplified by social media on people’s choice in this Referendum were changed by my on-street interactions. I was concerned that President Obama’s intervention in Week 3 was going to have a negative impact on Leave. On the contrary, the street reaction that weekend was broadly that he should ‘keep his nose’ out. This was a surprise to me as was general anti-US feeling. Similarly, the brutal and tragic assassination of Jo Cox does not seem to have been a major topic on the streets these past two days despite social media frenzy. In fact, as a digital strategist I regret to say that social media buzz is a side show or an irrelevance to many working people.
Key 3. Since Watford is one of the most densely populated and diverse Districts outside of inner-City London, immigration is an important issue here. Many people walking past the Leave stall are eastern European immigrants who cannot Vote in this Referendum but whose increasing choice of Watford as a place to settle has influenced the decisions of people who can vote. Unquestionably the arrival of these new residents puts Watford’s public schools, hospital and local GP surgeries under pressure and drives up Leave vote pledges.

Picture
Key 4. From the start it was obvious that there was strong support for Brexit in the Asian community in Watford. Many mentioned to me the discriminatory nature of the EU’s free movement of people rules that allow EU citizens to enter the UK without visas while citizens from Commonwealth countries have to go through a harder, more restrictive visa process. Interestingly, the Mosques in Watford don’t seem to be putting out an ‘informal’ line on how to vote in this Referendum as far as I can tell from speaking to Muslims on the High Street. That’s significant.

Key 5. Many young peoples’ support for Remain is superficial at best. Those who stopped and spoke to us at the Leave stall asking questions left, in most cases, thinking seriously whether the celebrity fronted arguments pushed by the Remain side were as solid as they first thought. In any case the motivation of this demographic to actually turn out and choose in this (to them) complex debate is questionable.
Key 6. The determination of those who will definitely @Vote_Leave is remarkable. A plague of locusts could descend on Watford District tomorrow and Leave voters will fight their way through to the polling station. Many weekends, the Leave stall was almost side by side with a Remain one flying the EU flag. Can’t say I saw much enthusiasm for the symbolism of the stars on blue in Watford. I have no doubt there is a solid and substantial Remain vote in Watford. Obviously, who turns out to vote on the day is critical. Thunderstorms are predicted Referendum day in this Town. Will that make even a marginal difference? Studies of weather affecting election outcomes say not.
Key 7. Remain or Leave this event in Watford and nationally will have some serious structural implications for UK politics in terms of the futures of all the main political parties. Many mainstream UK parties were split on the EU issue - some more publicly than others. I met some great people from across the political spectrum in this campaign and it’s the first time I have ever delivered a political leaflet with a ‘Green’ message!

Picture
Key 8. I have been involved in politics for many years and the people who say they ‘Don’t Care’ about voting this time around is the lowest I have ever seen in any plebiscite in my adult life. This maybe because it’s a simple binary decision which people who have a great disdain for party politics can engage in. I don’t go so far as to say we’ll see a whole bunch of Jehovah’s Witnesses turning up at the polls but, generally speaking, more people are thinking about the issues at least than for any campaign I have experienced including general elections.

Prediction: The conventional psephologist wisdom is that the closer to London a voter is the more likely they are to vote Remain. Watford borders Greater London and is often touted as the ‘Gateway to the North’. It is a barometer parliamentary seat and has voted for the party of government in every general election since 1974. After 10 weeks involved in the #EURef campaign here I can say with some certainty that things are very, very close as of today. The Remain camp need a larger margin here if they are to avoid Brexit as results sweep into London proper. Putting aside all my inbuilt bias as best I can, I’m calling the result in Watford District as 51:49 for Leave on the day. If I’m right Britain is headed out of the EU and into an Outward Looking, Global Trading future as an independent nation state.

Click here to read Gary’s article on “Why UK Watford is one of the most industrious places on earth”

0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Check the 'Categories List' below to select by topic.
    Follow this Blog to discover how the
    ebbs and flows of markets, politics, conflicts, countries, people and money
    make the world go round.
     For comment on eCommerce, technologies, IT, Big Data and more see
    'Digital Thinking'.

    Picture

    (Pron. "bawl-zee thing-king")

    defined:
    adj: 1. Slang courageous and spirited reasoning; judgement  2. Characterized by clear, straightforward thought or thoughtfulness; rational: “That’s the sort of Ballsy Thinking to move us towards our objective”.

    n.  1. The act or practice of one that thinks differently, innovatively; new thought.  2. Leading by way of reasoning; judgment: “This is not ballsy thinking, it is too timid an idea.”


    Picture

    Archives

    November 2018
    August 2017
    June 2017
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    April 2016
    November 2014
    July 2014
    March 2014
    September 2013
    May 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012

    Categories

    All
    Brexit
    China
    Companies House
    Conflict
    Crime
    Drones
    Eurozone
    Get Connected
    Global Finance
    Global Sport
    Iran Nukes
    Millennials
    Social Issues
    Terrorism
    The Meaning Of Life
    Uk Economy
    Ukip
    Uk Politics

    RSS Feed

Picture
Current Status: 
Gary welcomes the opportunity to discuss projects that he might be able to work on with you.  
Tel: +44 7508 157 892 Email: ideas@garyling.com

Picture
Photos used under Creative Commons from jdn, Editor B, WDanRoberts, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com