Early this morning I was high up in the Penthouse Suite of Barings overlooking London for a briefing on Asia Economies. Over a bacon roll I discover this article in CityAM. I ask one of the presenters how exports can be rising in China and yet the Baltic Dry is sliding? She admits that the Chinese numbers maybe a bit flaky. This PM the US surprises markets with stats that show the US economy shrank a steep 2.9% in Q1. I am used to my political and economic forecasts being right over the medium to long term…but have never been proved right in just a matter of hours! Champagne (and more bacon rolls) all round!
So this morning, the Chinese finally sign a deal to take Russian East Siberian Gas in a 30 year deal. They really did hold all the cards in the end in these negotiations. That Gas had nowhere else to go other than China if it came out of the ground at all. President Putin had already arrived in Beijing and it was touch and go whether the Chinese would sign - last minute squeeze by his hosts after a decade of negotiations? No wonder the Russians are desperate to do this deal. Already eastern European countries are looking for alternative, more secure, energy supplies so that they can stay warm in future winters given the insecurity of Russian supply. This search may be looking for a medium to long term solution but Russia can see the writing on the wall. As for the Russian's inviting Chinese interest in its Siberian natural resources – Be Careful What You Wish For, Mr Putin!
Concise Ballsy Thinking as the latest news rolls off the ticker tape. (Er, if you are under 20, Google it!)