Gary Ling, Digital Producer, Data Monetiser, Political Savant, Information Economist, Solution Seller, Business Strategist.
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Spanish Summer Balls

28/9/2012

1 Comment

 
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Listen for Balls. What a week for Spain.  If ever a country needs to understand the TOB it's the Kingdom of Spain.  This week respected commentators have suggested that some sort of military coup may be on the cards to prevent the break up of the country if the current austerity package being implemented by the Government causes the Kingdom to fracture (here). In addition, the Spanish have been well and truly stitched up by the Eurozone's Triple AAA countries: The Netherlands, Germany and (the hardest beggars of them all) Finland.  

In terms of the country's territorial integrity all eyes are now focused on the Catalonia elections on 25 November. Although how a region which has beggars like the one above thinks it can do better out of Madrid's orbit beats me.  (I took this photo in Barcelona a few years ago).  


An even more serious question is how can the Spanish trust any agreements they make with the AAA countries?  Back in June they were told that the holes in the  financial accounts of Spanish banks need not appear on the Country's balance sheet. I couldn't believe that this had been agreed at the time, particularly by the Germans who through various help-funds set up in the Euro-area would have been the people likely left with the tab.  


It has become clear to anyone who follows the shenanigans of the Eurozone closely that the Euro clique will do absolutely anything to ensure that they get a balmy summer holiday in August.  Last summer it was all about 'Merkozy' (the great Franco-German axis personified) saving the Euro and their whole plan fell apart even before the end of August 2011. This year is even worse.  The triple A countries have blatantly gone back on what they allowed to be stated as their positions last June with respect to Spain and others. Perhaps they had a rethink while lying on the beach or, more likely, just knew that they weren't going to do what they agreed from the start.  In any case, the markets have noted this and will cause great problems for the leading countries of the Eurozone the next time they come up with a supposedly 'generous' solution for the indebted countries.


I have marked this blog post for particular attention next June and July when I suspect that the same Euro-decision makers will try once again to set themselves for a quiet August with more 'suspect' plans.  Of course, this assumes the Eurozone is still intact by then!


1 Comment
Mark James Hughes link
2/10/2012 05:41:59

Investors were thrown something of a curve ball when Germany appeared to show that it would not allow the ESM to be used to mop up Spanish banking debt. This was not what they had appeared to say at the Eurozone summit, where they appeared to be more willing in what they would allow. Viewing it from the 2 camps, the Spanish believed that the outcome of the summit was that the EU would adopt a banking union and that this would trigger a transfer of the bank recapitalisation from Spain to the ESM. Germany apparently saw the detail differently and did not wish it to include any legacy risk and therefore the Spanish legacy should remain with Spain. And perhaps more importantly the Germans do not want the ESM to undertake direct banking recapitalisations until the banking union is fully implemented, which will not be any time soon!

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    (Pron. "bawl-zee thing-king")

    defined:
    adj: 1. Slang courageous and spirited reasoning; judgement  2. Characterized by clear, straightforward thought or thoughtfulness; rational: “That’s the sort of Ballsy Thinking to move us towards our objective”.

    n.  1. The act or practice of one that thinks differently, innovatively; new thought.  2. Leading by way of reasoning; judgment: “This is not ballsy thinking, it is too timid an idea.”


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Photos used under Creative Commons from jdn, Editor B, WDanRoberts, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com